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Thursday, August 27, 2020
Ernest Hemongway His Life in his Works Essay -- Essays Papers
Ernest Hemongway His Life in his Works F. Scott Fitzgerald once wrote in a letter to Maxwell Perkins, ââ¬ËThis is to enlighten you concerning a youngster named Ernest Hemingway, who lives in Paris (an American)... Iââ¬â¢d find him immediately. Heââ¬â¢s the genuine thing.ââ¬â¢ This is maybe the most prophetic explanation Fitzgerald at any point made in the course of his life, on the grounds that Ernest Hemingway was in fact ââ¬Ëthe genuine thingââ¬â¢. Just months after that letter was composed, Hemingwayââ¬â¢s first book of short stories, In Our Time, was distributed, thus started the profession of one of Americaââ¬â¢s most noteworthy abstract saints. The works that pursued dazed crowds far and wide with the reasonable, compact language that was utilized, and the intricate points of interest that permitted a great many individuals a top to bottom investigate the life of an incredibly fascinating man. In any case, the flawlessness accomplished in his writing was consistently far off to the man himself. Be that as it may, Hemingway had the option to utilize his genuine catastrophes and make them into immortal magnum opuses. That is the reason right up 'til today it very well may be said that Ernest Hemingway is the most compelling American essayist ever (Turnbull, 167). Conceived in Oak Park, Illinois on July 21, 1899, Hemingway was raised to appreciate the magnificence of nature and the significance of investing energy in the wild. This affection for the outside, including angling and chasing, turns out to be very obvious in his later bits of writing. At eighteen years old, Hemingway was positioned in Italy, during World War I, as a Red Cross emergency vehicle driver. It was there that he initially began to look all starry eyed at Europe. He was quickly pulled in to the excellence of the open country and the polish of the way of life there, and would later spend numerous long stretches of his life on the landmass. Herman Melville called the ocean his ââ¬Å"Harvard and Yaleâ⬠, to Ernest Hemingway, the mainland of Europe was his (Baker, 17). Not long after his appearance, Hemingway was injured by an Austrian shell as it detonated close by slaughtering an Italian trooper, and brushing the legs off of another. The subtleties that followed have been questioned, however one source expresses that Hemingway, with shrapnel inserted in his leg, conveyed two injured troopers to wellbeing as automatic weapon shoot torn through his previously bloodied appendage. It was at the medical clinic in Milan, while having his leg watched out for, where Hemingway originally experienced passionate feelings for. She was a Red Cross medical caretaker more... ...ce dozed, and to angle where he found the harmony and tranquility to compose the ideal book. Hemingway has been imitated, yet never rose to, and it will likely be quite a while before we see another American with his ability, insight, and desire forever, develop with a bit of composing that can excite us like Hemingway can. Despite the fact that historical data has been questioned (much because of the way that Ernest was known for his enormous misrepresentations), it has been said that ââ¬Å"to discover reality with regards to (Hemingway), you should initially take a gander at his fictionâ⬠. Hemingwayââ¬â¢s life is in his books, and we as a whole have the chance to understand it (Miller, 181). Works Cited Pastry specialist, Carlos Heard. Ernest Hemingway; A Life Story. New York, NY. Scribner. 1969. Loscalzo, Jim. ââ¬Å"Hemingwayââ¬â¢s Cubaâ⬠. U.S. News and World Report. 26 May 1997. Vol. 122, P. 62. Mill operator, Louis M. Hemingway: The Writer as Artist. Columbus, Ohio. 1983. Nelson, Gerald B. Hemingway, Life and Works. New York, NY. Realities on File. 1984. Sands, Garret. The Life and Times of Ernest Hemingway. San Francisco, CA. Eliot Distributing. 1981. Turnbull, Andrew. Letters of F. Scott Fitzgerald. New York. 1963. Ernest Hemongway His Life in his Works Essay - Essays Papers Ernest Hemongway His Life in his Works F. Scott Fitzgerald once wrote in a letter to Maxwell Perkins, ââ¬ËThis is to educate you concerning a youngster named Ernest Hemingway, who lives in Paris (an American)... Iââ¬â¢d find him immediately. Heââ¬â¢s the genuine thing.ââ¬â¢ This is maybe the most prophetic articulation Fitzgerald at any point made in the course of his life, in light of the fact that Ernest Hemingway was to be sure ââ¬Ëthe genuine thingââ¬â¢. Just months after that letter was composed, Hemingwayââ¬â¢s first book of short stories, In Our Time, was distributed, thus started the profession of one of Americaââ¬â¢s most noteworthy scholarly saints. The works that pursued shocked crowds the world over with the unmistakable, succinct language that was utilized, and the intricate points of interest that permitted a huge number of individuals a top to bottom investigate the life of an incredibly intriguing man. Notwithstanding, the flawlessness accomplished in his writing was consistently far off to the man himself. Yet, Hemingway had the option to utilize his genuine disasters and make them into ageless showstoppers. That is the reason right up 'til today it tends to be said that Ernest Hemingway is the most persuasive American essayist ever (Turnbull, 167). Conceived in Oak Park, Illinois on July 21, 1899, Hemingway was raised to appreciate the excellence of nature and the significance of investing energy in the wild. This adoration for the outside, including angling and chasing, turns out to be very clear in his later bits of writing. At eighteen years old, Hemingway was positioned in Italy, during World War I, as a Red Cross rescue vehicle driver. It was there that he originally became hopelessly enamored with Europe. He was promptly pulled in to the magnificence of the open country and the style of the way of life there, and would later spend numerous long periods of his life on the landmass. Herman Melville called the ocean his ââ¬Å"Harvard and Yaleâ⬠, to Ernest Hemingway, the landmass of Europe was his (Baker, 17). Not long after his appearance, Hemingway was injured by an Austrian shell as it detonated close by slaughtering an Italian fighter, and brushing the legs off of another. The subtleties that followed have been questioned, yet one source expresses that Hemingway, with shrapnel inserted in his leg, conveyed two injured fighters to wellbeing as automatic weapon discharge torn through his previously bloodied appendage. It was at the medical clinic in Milan, while having his leg kept an eye on, where Hemingway originally became hopelessly enamored. She was a Red Cross medical attendant more... ...ce rested, and to angle where he found the harmony and peacefulness to compose the ideal book. Hemingway has been imitated, however never rose to, and it will presumably be quite a while before we see another American with his ability, insight, and desire forever, rise with a bit of composing that can excite us like Hemingway can. In spite of the fact that true to life data has been contested (much because of the way that Ernest was known for his huge distortions), it has been said that ââ¬Å"to discover reality with regards to (Hemingway), you should initially take a gander at his fictionâ⬠. Hemingwayââ¬â¢s life is in his books, and we as a whole have the chance to understand it (Miller, 181). Works Cited Dough puncher, Carlos Heard. Ernest Hemingway; A Life Story. New York, NY. Scribner. 1969. Loscalzo, Jim. ââ¬Å"Hemingwayââ¬â¢s Cubaâ⬠. U.S. News and World Report. 26 May 1997. Vol. 122, P. 62. Mill operator, Louis M. Hemingway: The Writer as Artist. Columbus, Ohio. 1983. Nelson, Gerald B. Hemingway, Life and Works. New York, NY. Realities on File. 1984. Sands, Garret. The Life and Times of Ernest Hemingway. San Francisco, CA. Eliot Distributing. 1981. Turnbull, Andrew. Letters of F. Scott Fitzgerald. New York. 1963.
Saturday, August 22, 2020
Postpartum Stress Disorder Essay
The baby blues period has been characterized as ââ¬Å"a delivering of the period following childbirthâ⬠(Webster, 1988, p. 1055) or ââ¬Å"occurring after labor or after conveyance, concerning the motherâ⬠(Doriand, 1988, p. 1343). In nursing or clinical course books, the baby blues period is characterized as ââ¬Å"the 6-week span between the introduction of the infant and the arrival of the regenerative organs to their typical non-pregnant stateâ⬠(Wong and Perry, 1998, p. 480). In any case, Tulman and Fawcettââ¬â¢s (1991) found that the recuperation of baby blues womenââ¬â¢s practical status from labor takes at any rate 3 to a half year. Websterââ¬â¢s Dictionary characterizes pressure solidly as a ââ¬Å"physical, mental, or passionate strain that upsets oneââ¬â¢s typical substantial functionsâ⬠(Webster, 1997, p. 735). Stress is delivered by stressors. Wheaton (1996) characterizes stressors as ââ¬Å"conditions of danger, requests, or auxiliary requirements that, by the very reality of their event or presence, raise doubt about the working respectability of the organismâ⬠(p. 2). What's more, four attributes of stressors are depicted: (1) dangers, requests, or basic imperatives; (2) a power testing the honesty of the life form; (3) a ââ¬Å"problemâ⬠that requires goals; and, (4) ââ¬Å"identity relevantâ⬠in dangers in which the weight applied by the stressor, to a limited extent, gets its capacity from its capability to un dermine or modify characters. Further, attention to the harm capability of a stressor is certifiably not an important condition for that stressor having negative outcomes; and a stressor can be characterized bidirectional ly as for request qualities. That is, it is feasible for both over-request and under-request to be pressure issues (Wheaton, 1996). In like manner, in view of the above meanings of the baby blues period, stress, and stressors, baby blues pressure is characterized as an obliging power created by baby blues stressors. Baby blues stressors are characterized as states of progress, request, or auxiliary limitation that, by the very actuality of their event or presence inside about a month and a half after conveyance, raise doubt about the working uprightness of body changes, maternal job fulfillment, and social help. Because of its numerous changes, the baby blues period has been conceptualized as a period of weakness to worry for childbearing ladies (Too, 1997). Baby blues Period The baby blues period has been conceptualized by an assortment of societies as a period of powerlessness to worry for ladies (Hung and Chung, 2001). It is described by emotional changes and requires compulsory modifications that include numerous challenges and concerns, conceivably prompting new requests, or basic imperatives and, subsequently, stress. All moms face the numerous requests of acclimating to changes in the body, finding out about the new newborn child, and getting support from noteworthy others. For ladies experiencing this progress, it might be an interestingly upsetting beneficial experience. A few stressors explicit to the puerperium as it exists in the writing have been distinguished. Those relating to body changes include: torment/inconvenience, rest/rest unsettling influences, diet, nourishment, physical limitations, weight gain, come back to prepregnancy physical shape, care of wounds, contraception, continuing sex, uneasiness of fastens, bosom care, bosom irritation, hemorrhoids, out of shape subcutaneous tissue, and striae. Stressors relating to maternal job accomplishment include: worries about newborn child crying, wellbeing, advancement, washing, apparel, dealing with, diapering, evening taking care of, breastfeeding, clashing master guidance, keeping the infant in a domain with an agreeable temperature, bottle taking care of, appearance, security, end, body weight, skin, babyââ¬â¢s sex, breathing, throwing up, resting, and line care (Moran et al. , 1997; Too, 1997). At last, those stressors relating to social help include: running the family unit, accounts, impression of got enthusiastic help, surrendering work, discovering time for individual interests and leisure activities, fatherââ¬â¢s job with the infant, relationship with the spouse, limitation of public activity, relationship with youngsters, and planning the requests of husband, housework, and kids (Moran et al. , 1997). Furthermore, Hung and Chung (2001) shows that after labor ladies will experience another kind of worry during the baby blues period, which is portrayed by sensational changes and requires alteration. States of progress, request, or auxiliary imperative may happen during these sensational changes, making numerous troubles or concerns. In this manner, notwithstanding broad pressure, baby blues pressure is initiated after conveyance during the baby blues period. Baby blues Stress Disorder Postpartum Stress Disorder (PSD) is the most genuine, least normal, and most exceptionally advertised of the baby blues mind-set issue: moms with PSD have murdered their newborn children and themselves. It is on the extraordinary finish of the baby blues continuum of temperament issue (Nonacs, 2005) and thoughtfulness regarding side effects is crucial for any baby blues bolster program. The treatment issues won't be completely talked about here in view of their claim to fame and unpredictability. Be that as it may, it stays an essential capacity of the administration conveyance to perceive side effects and allude suitably for specific mental consideration and the executives. A touchy, direct inquiry, for example, ââ¬Å"Some ladies who have another child have contemplations, for example, wishing the infant were dead or about hurting the infant; has this transpired? (Wisner, et al. , 2003, p. 44), is a basic component of baby blues assessment and Wisner and associates (2003) have recommended that this inquiry be posed of every single baby blues lady. PSD is an uncommon, serious confusion with a commonness of one to two cases for each one thousand births (Seyfried and Marcus, 2003). Manifestations are unexpected and frequently happen inside 48 hours of conveyance however can be postponed up to two years (Rosenberg, et al, 2003). Regularly, be that as it may, manifestations happen inside the initial three weeks, and 66% show up inside the initial fourteen days baby blues (Chaudron and Pies, 2003). Side effects incorporate disposition lability, distractibility, a sleeping disorder, strange or over the top musings, impedance in working, daydreams, pipedreams, sentiments of blame, odd conduct, sentiments of mistreatment, envy, pretentiousness, self-destructive and maniacal ideation, self-disregard, and psychological confusion (Wisner et al. , 2003). Ladies with PSD who harbor considerations of hurting their baby are bound to follow up on those musings (Wisner et al. , 2003). As a result of the seriousness of the ailment and noteworthy worry for the security of both the newborn child and the mother, PSD is viewed as a mental crisis and hospitalization is important. Etiology of PSD There has been some discussion about the etiology of PSD. As noted beforehand, the frequency is roughly a couple of ladies for each one thousand births. This rate has stayed unaltered for that most recent 150 years (Wisner et al. , 2003). In culturally diverse investigations the rates for PSD are like those announced in the United States and the United Kingdom. These discoveries recommend an essential etiologic connection among PSD and labor, instead of psychosocial factors (Wisner et al. , 2003). Oââ¬â¢Hara (1997) has noticed that ladies are 20 to multiple times bound to be hospitalized for PSD inside thirty days after labor than at some other time during the life expectancy, driving him to theorize, with little uncertainty, that for ladies there is a particular relationship among labor and PSD. There are subgroups of ladies who might be bound to create upsetting side effects after conveyance. Primaparas seem to have a higher hazard for c than multiparous ladies (Wisner et al. , 2003). This might be the consequence of an undiscovered bipolar issue. Ladies with a background marked by bipolar turmoil or PSD have a 1 out of 5 danger of hospitalization following labor (Seyfried and Marcus, 2003). The general example of indications depicted as PSD recommends the disease is on a continuum of bipolar mind-set issue (Wisner et al. , 2003). The clinical introduction of PSD is regularly fundamentally the same as a hyper scene (Seyfried and Marcus, 2003). Emotional unsettling influences might be burdensome, hyper, or blended (Chaudron and Pies, 2003). While there is no run of the mill introduction, ladies frequently show fancies, fantasies, as well as confused conduct. Preposterous conduct frequently rotates around newborn children and youngsters, and these ladies must be painstakingly surveyed on the grounds that contemplations of hurting their kids are some of the time followed up on (Chaudron and Pies, 2003). The prevalent full of feeling side effect in those baby blues ladies who submit child murder, filicide, or self destruction is misery as opposed to lunacy (Chaudron and Pies, 2003). In investigating the association among bipolarity and PSD a few examinations have indicated proof for a connection in four territories: manifestation introduction, demonstrative results, family ancestry, and repeats in ladies with bipolar turmoil (Chaudron and Pies, 2003). The relationship to bipolar turmoil is considered very enticing and it has been recommended that intense beginning PPP be viewed as bipolar issue until demonstrated something else (Wisner et al. , 2003). Anyway bipolarity doesn't represent all instances of PSD and a fastidious differential finding is required for those ladies with introducing pressure manifestations. A cautious checking of the patientââ¬â¢s history for past hyper or hypomanic scenes just as any family ancestry of bipolar issue is significant so as to preclude bipolar turmoil. Natural makes contributing first beginning PSD should be inspected and precluded. These include: tumors, sequelae to head injury, focal sensory system contaminations, cerebral embolism, psychomotor seizures, hepatic unsettling influence, electrolyte lopsided characteristics, diabetic conditions, anoxia, and harmful exposures (Seyfried and Marcus, 2003). Of extraordinary thought in postpartu
Its Tough Being A Turtle Essay Example For Students
Its Tough Being A Turtle Essay Word Count: 560Its Tough Being a TurtleEveryday, I approach my day by day exercises of gradually awakening, going for a stroll with my family to the Mississippi River, washing every day, and numerous different exercises. Now and again I simply appreciate sitting on the shore with the water sprinkling up on me now and then. Every so often, when were eager my companions and I chase for mussels or shellfishes along the waterway bank. We essentially approach doing whatever us might feeling like doing. Irregularly something energizing occurs, similar to when my mom laid her eggs, however typically nothing too exciting happens. I dont truly observe an excessive number of people or human action where I live, however my amigos downstream state theyve seen more than theyve needed to. So from what Ive heard, Im really fortunate in that I don't need to manage them to an extreme. As opposed to my customary sightings, when I was strolling slowly down to the waterway one day, a gathering of young people came striding down the slope after me. They were entirely uproarious and upsetting. They strolled directly by, not in any event, seeing me. I watched them toss shakes in the stream. I think they were attempting to perceive how frequently they could skip them or something to that effect. They all appeared to be somewhat savage to me, similar to they had never observed a waterway. They sprinkled around in it hooting and hollering. At long last, in the wake of messing about for a couple of hours, they chose to have lunch. I continued watching them since I discovered them very entertaining. Subsequent to opening up their sandwiches and opening their soft drink jars, they started to eat. Next thing I knew, they were finished gobbling and wadding up their refuse. I was unable to accept my eyes at the following thing they didthey tossed the garbage in the waterway! Those senseless young people had littered in my home. At that point, I was vexed. Not long after their showcase of idiocy, they got together and left. As they strolled past me again to leave, I gazed into the stream. I was unable to comprehend why those children had done that. All they needed to do was get it together alongside the remainder of their things and take it to the closest rubbish can. I surmise they just dont comprehend what they are doing to creatures like me, my companions, and their own water flexibly. Do they not understand that these substances stay in the water and can make it noxious for most types of life? Indeed, even biodegradable toxins can harm a water gracefully for extensive stretches of time. As any type of tainting collects, life inside the water begins to endure. Numerous types of plants and creatures have gotten jeopardized or are presently wiped out along these lines. In addition to the fact that it effects us in the water, it uncovered individuals all around the world to new dangers from ailment. I surmise they just dont even realiz e that the degree of ecological contamination brought about by people is as of now so incredible that a few researchers question whether the Earth can keep on supporting life except if it is promptly remedied. I truly love being who I am, however its days like these when it is extremely intense being a turtle.
Friday, August 21, 2020
Improving Student Learning Through Technology Essay
Conceptual These days of a wide range of innovative headways, the marvels and opportunities for comfort and help could be met momentarily. From armsââ¬â¢ reach to fingertip availability of information and data, these headways just posture more prominent favorable circumstances for an ever increasing number of individuals, particularly for the school and college division. The beginning of the significant PC, the strong web, and all the more soon to follow show just guarantee of advancement, improving further the odds of achievement for understudies is bettered. It would just be of genuine advantage in light of the fact that as these understudies step and stretch out into this present reality, they will be in fact and mechanically well-prepared to confront everything without exception. Improving Student Learning Through Technology The basic motivation behind instruction is one which selects to offer each understudy the opportunity to have the option to prevail throughout everyday life, in the midst of any test, condition, and disappointment. This objective could be better acknowledged whether and when all endeavors, devices, and procedures for training are utilized and upgraded to it maximum capacity. With various advances among the lines of innovation, practically all issues of social, political, monetary, and furthermore scholastic significance could be encouraged effortlessly and effectiveness. With the utilization these different apparatuses made effectively accessible, studentsââ¬â¢ by and large learning procedures could be improved which would significantly profit them. With subjects, for example, Algebra, Physics, and Chemistry, it must be viewed as that understudies are a lot of acclimated the more customary techniques for instructing, learning, and everything else that accompanies it. Using new advancements, a new, creative methodology is taken, which would animate and keep the understudies intrigued. Thus, academic organizations must perceive the propensities for their understudies and profit by such chances. They should figure out how to adjust with the changing occasions and fuse utilization of innovation in their projects. Take for example gaming programs on a superficial level and as introduced, such apparatuses are utilized more for relaxation than learning. In any case, the Queensland Government (2008) accentuates this must be executed with work: ââ¬Å"purposefully chose games mixed with deliberately built learning encounters can be utilized to improve understudy learning outcomesâ⬠(n.p.). Such alternatives are regularly disregarded, for they are accepted to just fill in as interruptions. In any case, as contended, the games should obviously coordinate required insightful prerequisites to enable the understudies to learn with energy and reasonable premium. Scholastic bodies and association may take this in genuine record, for it could really bring another feeling of learning component that the more customary strategies for instruction might be inadequate. References Queensland Government (2008). Games in learning. Queensland Government: Branch of Education, Training and the Arts. Recovered November 6, 2008, from http://education.qld.gov.au/smartclassrooms/methodology/dp/games.html.
Essay Examples on the American Dream
Essay Examples on the American DreamEssay samples on the American dream is a short book written by Gail Kaye. It is a book that contains several different examples of essays that people can choose from and incorporate into their writing.Some of the examples in the Essay samples on the American dream include essays from a lot of different students that each have their own thoughts on the American dream. There are two types of essays in the book, essay examples that were written by students who are not necessarily writers as well as essay examples that were written by writers who wish to include a part of the American dream in their essays. Kaye included a section where each student's essay could be completed for them so that they could select which essay examples they would like to include with their essay.The writers are given a large portion of their time to write an essay and then they are given a section of space to write on what they feel to be an important part of the American d ream. Kaye gives the students the same amount of time to write their essay as the writers so that each student has their opportunity to describe the American dream. She also provides tips on how to write an essay and how to introduce yourself.Although writing an essay about the American dream might seem like a daunting task for students who do not really understand how to write essays, Kaye has found that writing about a topic does not have to be complicated at all. The material can be used to make students more confident in writing and they can see how to integrate their feelings and thoughts into their essay. Kaye finds that students can improve their writing skills when they write about something that they understand. She also feels that it is much easier to incorporate ideas into the essay when the reader understands what the writer is trying to convey.Aside from being able to better express what they are trying to say, students will also be able to create a stronger thesis for their essay by understanding what exactly they are trying to say with their essay. They will be able to see their writing progress throughout the process of writing their essay as well as through editing their work.This book will provide many essays and essay examples to help the student become a better writer. This can be used by any student that is thinking about writing a paper or essay about the American dream. The only thing a student has to do is download the free sample chapter and then add the sample word into their draft.The essays in the book can be used for a variety of different purposes, including essay examples on the American dream for a class assignment. In addition, students can use the essay examples for their own personal projects as well as use the sample essay for assignments or essays. This is a great way to learn how to write essays and is a good place to start writing an essay about the American dream.Essay samples on the American dream is a book that is not only helpful for students who want to write about the American dream but it can also be very useful for any writer out there who is looking to learn about writing about their topic. It is a quick and easy to read book that provides a number of different topics to help the student get started writing their essay.
Sunday, June 28, 2020
Macroeconomic Variables And Domestic Factors Affecting Stock Market Index Finance Essay - Free Essay Example
Similar to any other commodity, in the equity market, share prices are also reliant on some factors. One of the main domestic factors in determining a stocks price is the macroeconomic variables of an economy. The theoretical framework of stock market and economic activity is rooted in Ross (1976), who launched the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) that associates stock returns to numerous variables. To study the relationship between the market returns and macroeconomic factors such as industrial production, the money supply, inflation, interest rate and exchange rate variables, Chen, Roll and Ross (1986) used a multivariate APT. They concluded a strong association between the market returns and these variables. 2.1.1 Studies done to test the association of macroeconomic variables with stock market returns After Rosss introduction of the APT in 1976 and his empirical findings in 1986, different authors started to test his theory. However, research into the relationship between stock market returns and multiple macroeconomic variables has been limited. Firslty, Dhakal, Kandil, and Sharma (1993) adopted a vector autoregression (VAR) model to test the impact of a change in the money supply on a change in the stock market index. In the US, a significant relationship between these two variables was discovered. Furthermore, a study by Abdullah and Haywarth (1993) found that a change in the market index was influenced by the rate of inflation and by both the change in the money supply. Another study was done by Fama (1981) who indicated that most economic factors, except inflation, exhibited a positive correlation with the stock market index. The Proxy hypothesis partially explained negative correlation between inflation and real equity returns. This is so because, inflation and real equity returns react inversely to news about future real output growth. On a contradictory point, Aarstol (2000) confirmed that this negative relationship persisted even when output growth was controlled. Even, Rapach (2001) examined the effects of money supply, aggregate spending, and aggregate supply shocks on real U.S. stock prices in a structural VAR model. One of his main findings was that real stock returns were negatively correlated with inflation. Additionally, Muradoglu et al. (2000) investigated possible causality between 19 emerging market returns and exchange rates, interest rates, inflation, and industrial production from 1976 to 1997. Their study demonstrated that the correlation between stock returns and macroeconomic variables were mainly due to the relative size of the respective stock market and their integration with world markets. Moreover, Wongbangpo and Sharma (2002) studied the relationship between the stock index and macroeconomic variables by observing both short and long run relationships between respective stock indexes and the macroeconomic variables of the consumer price index (CPI), gross national product (GNP), the interest rate, the money supply, and exchange rate. They found that in the long-run all five stock price indexes were positively related to growth in output and negatively to the aggregate price level. Surprisingly, a negative long-run relationship between stock prices and interest rates was noted for the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, and was found to be positive for Indonesia and Malaysia. In the end, causality tests detected an overall relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices for all five equity markets. Lastly, Mukhopadhyay and Sarkar (2003) conducted a systematic analysis of the Indian stock market returns prior to and after market liberalization and the influence of macroeconomic factors on returns. Specifically for the post-liberalization period, real economic activity, infla tion, money supply growth, FDI, and the NASDAQ-index were significant in explaining variations in Indian stock return. Similarly, while significant during the pre-liberalization period, nominal Exchange rate was found not be significant after liberalization. 2.1.2 Summary of findings In the empirical review, we noted that money supply is a variable that almost all the authors used and they eventually found that it is positively correlated with stock index. Likewise, variables such as CPI, exchange rate, industrial production, interest rate and others impacted on the equity market indices as noted by numerous authors. Remarkably, inflation is one macroeconomic variable which was found to be negatively correlated with the stock returns in most of the studies carried out. 2.2 Financial crises affecting stock markets worldwide According to Mink and Mierau (2009), financial crises are characterized by the sudden and simultaneous materialization of risks that in times of tranquillity were believed to be independent. Therefore this can pose a substantial threat to the stability of the international financial system. These risk spreading opportunities in times of stock market crashes has induced investors to fear that during financial crises shift-contagion occurs. This has been defined by Allen and Gale (2001), Rigobon (2002), and Pericoli and Sbracia (2003) as a shift in the strength of the transmission of shocks from one country stock market to other. As an illustration, concentrated episodes of financial disorder in the last two decades, quickly spreading across borders, sometimes without apparent fundamental justification, caught the attention of financial researchers. Labeled as the Tequila crisis, the Asian flu, or the Russian virus, such colourful media designations depicted that each crisis propa gated like a contagious disease, quickly affecting not only neighbouring but also distant markets. Following from these, the word contagion began to frequently appear in the financial literature as these events became the object of an increasing number of theoretical and applied analyses. 2.2.1 Financial contagion In the existing literature, financial contagion has not obtained a consensual definition yet and each different concept varies with the specific nature of each study. The description adopted here was projected by Forbes and Rigobon (2001) and is particularly sufficient for analyses of stock markets crises. The authors identify financial contagion with a significant increase in cross-market linkages after a shock to one country (or group of countries) and defend that such definition presents a number of operational advantages. To be precise, its usefulness for financial investors engaged in strategies of international diversification, or for monetary authorities who aim at justifying bailing out interventions in markets affected by foreign crises. 2.2.2 Transmission mechanisms of financial contagion Remarkably, there are a number of different theories on how shocks are propagated internationally. However, it is useful to demarcate this broad set of theories into two groups: crisis-contingent and non-crisis-contingent theories. Crisis-contingent theories are those that clarify why transmission mechanisms change during a crisis and therefore why cross-market linkages increase after a shock. Non-crisis-contingent theories take the view that transmission mechanisms are the same during a crisis as during more stable periods, and therefore cross-market linkages do not increase after a shock. 2.2.2.1 Crisis-Contingent Theories Crisis-contingent theories about how shocks are spread internationally can be divided into two mechanisms: multiple equilibria and endogenous liquidity. Multiple Equilibria This first mechanism occurs when a crisis in one country is used as a signal for imminent financial turmoil for other countries. In this perspective, Masson (1998) proved how a crisis in one country could lead investors expectations shifting from a good to a bad equilibrium for another economy and thereby causing a crash in the latter. Mullainathan (1998) argued that investors incorrectly remind past events. A crisis in one country could activate a memory of precedent crises, which would cause investors to recompute their priors and allocate a higher probability to a bad state. The resultant descending co-movement in prices would arise since memories are correlated. The movement from a good to bad equilibrium and the transmission of the first shock, in both above models, are initiated by a change in invest or expectations or beliefs but not by any real linkages. This branch of theories demonstrates not only the contagion of crises, but also why speculative attacks occur in economies that appear to be fundamentally sound. These are called crisis-contingent theories as the change in the price of the second market is worsen during the shift between equilibria. Hence, subsequent to a crisis in the first economy, a change in investors expectations is triggered and the shock transmitted through a propagation mechanism that does not exist during stable periods. Endogenous liquidity Another group of crisis-contingent theories is endogenous liquidity shocks. Such a model is developed by Valdà ©s (1996) where a crisis in one country can reduce the liquidity of market participants. This would cause investors to recompose their portfolios and sell assets in other countries in order to continue operating in the market, to satisfy margin calls, or to meet regulatory requirements. Likewise , if the liquidity shock is large enough, a crisis in one country could increase the degree of credit rationing and force investors to sell their holdings of assets in countries not affected by the initial crisis. Calvo (1999) developped a different model of endogenous liquidity. Asymmetric information among investors is present in Calvos model. Sometimes investors do not have a complete picture of the conditions in every country that can affect their portfolios returns, owing partly to the cost of gathering and processing information. In the absence of adequate information, a financial crisis in one country may lead investors to believe that other countries could face similar problems. As a result, investors could sell assets in other countries, especially those with similar conditions to those in the country where the crisis originated. This kind of behavior can mirror rational as well as irrational behavior. If weak fundamentals are revealed by a crisis, investors may rational ly conclude that comparable countries could also face similar problems, thus causing contagion. As an illustration, informed investors who are able to decode the fundamentals of an economy are also equally hit by liquidity shocks to sell their holdings. On the other hand, uninformed investors cannot distinguish between a liquidity shock and a bad signal, and therefore charge a premium when the informed investors are net sellers. What transpires from the above is that liquidity shock leads to an increased correlation in asset prices. Hence, this transmission mechanism does not seem to occur during stable periods but only occurs after the initial shock. The above theories propose varying channels through which shocks could be transmitted internationally: multiple equilibria based on investor psychology and endogenous-liquidity shocks leading to portfolio recomposition. Regardless of the diverse approaches and models used to widen these theories, they all share one significant im plication: the transmission mechanism throughout (or directly after) the crisis is inherently dissimilar than that before the shock. This is a structural shift causing shocks to propagate via a channel that does not exist in stable periods. Hence, each of these theories could explain the existence of contagion. 2.2.2.2 Non-Crisis-Contingent Theories On the other hand, there exists another school of thought where although shocks can propagate internationally but do not generate shift-contagion. These theories hold that transmission mechanisms are not significantly different after an initial shock. Instead, large cross-market correlations after a shock are attributed to a continuation of linkages that existed before the crisis which often called real linkages, since many (although not all) are based on economic fundamentals. These theories can be classified into four broad channels: trade; policy coordination; country reevaluation; and random aggregate shocks. However, we will shed light on one major theory which is trade. Trade This mechanism works through several related effects. For instance, a country in the process of devaluing its currency would have the direct effect of increasing the relative competitiveness of that countrys goods. Moreover, exports to a second country could increase, thereby adversely affecting do mestic sales within the second country. Moreover, the initial devaluation indirectly leads to a reduction in export sales from other countries that compete in the same third markets. Either of these effects would not only have a direct impact on a countrys sales and output, but also, in case of strong competition, it would increase expectations of an exchange rate devaluation and/or lead to an attack on another countrys currency. 2.2.3 Studies done to detect contagion effects The empirical literature testing if contagion is present is even further widespread than the theoretical literature defining how shocks can be transmitted across markets. The common approaches utilized to measure the transmission of shocks and test for contagion are: analysis of cross-market correlation coefficients; GARCH frameworks; cointegration; and probit models. There are also many studies examining the existence of contagion effect of various crises on different stock markets in the world using different methodologies. Virtually all of these papers conclude that contagion occurred during the crisis under investigation. 2.2.2.1 Cross-market correlation coefficients The most uncomplicated tests are based on cross-market correlation coefficients. These tests compute the correlation in returns between two markets through a steady period and subsequently test for a significant increase in this correlation coefficient following a shock. If the correlation coefficient boosts up considerably, this advocates that the transmission mechanism between the two markets increased after the shock and contagion occurred. Most of these papers test for contagion immediately after the U.S. stock market crash of 1987. In the foremost major paper on this theme, King and Wadhwani (1990) tested for an increase in cross-market correlations between the U.S., U.K. and Japan and found that correlations increased notably after the U.S. crash. Lee and Kim (1993) extended this analysis to twelve major markets and found further proof of contagion: that average weekly cross-market correlations increased from 0.23 before the 1987 crash to 0.39 later. Moreover, Calvo and Reinh art (1995) used this approach to test for contagion after the 1994 Mexican peso crisis and found that the correlation in stock prices and Brady bonds between Asian and Latin American emerging markets increased significantly. Remarkably, Baig and Goldfajn (1998) presented the most thorough analysis using this framework and test for contagion in stock indices, currency prices, interest rates, and sovereign spreads in emerging markets during the 1997-98 East Asian crisis. They found that cross-market correlations increased during the crisis for many of the countries. To sum up, each one of these tests based on cross-market correlation coefficients comes up to the similar universal conclusion: correlations typically increase considerably after the appropriate crisis and consequently, contagion occurred during the period under investigation. 2.2.2.2 GARCH frameworks Another approach to test for contagion is to make use of an ARCH or GARCH framework to approximate the variance-covariance transmission mechanism across countries. Chou et al. (1994) and Hamao et al. (1990) used this procedure and find evidence of significant spillovers across markets after the 1987 U.S. stock market crash. They also concluded that contagion does not occur evenly across countries and is fairly stable through time. In another study, Edwards (1998) examined the propagation across bond markets after the Mexican peso crisis by focusing on how capital controls affect the transmission of shocks. He showed that there were noteworthy spillovers from Mexico to Argentina, by estimating an augmented GARCH model but not from Mexico to Chile. His tests showed that volatility was transmitted from one country to the other, but they do not specify if this propagation changed throughout the crisis. 2.2.2.3 Cointegration A third group of tests for contagion center on changes in the long-run relationship between markets, as an alternative of any short-run changes after a shock. These papers employ the same fundamental procedures as above, excluding test for changes in the co-integrating vector between stock markets instead of in the variance-covariance matrix. For example, Longin and Solnik (1995) considered seven OECD countries from 1960 to 1990 and reported that average correlations in stock market returns between the U.S. and other countries rose by about 0.36 over this time period. However, this approach is not an precise test for contagion given that it assumes that real linkages between markets stay constant over the entire period. If tests demonstrate that the co-integrating relationship increased over time, this could be a permanent shift in cross-market linkages instead of contagion. Furthermore, by centering on such long time periods, this series of tests could overlook brief periods of co ntagion (for instance after the Russian collapse of 1998). 2.2.2.4 Probit models A last approach to testing for contagion utilizes easier assumptions and exogenous events to discover a model and straightforwardly gauge changes in the propagation mechanism. A first research was that of Baig and Goldfajn (1998) who studied the effect of daily news (the exogenous event) in one countrys stock market on other countries markets in the 1997-98 East Asian crisis. They found that a considerable proportion of a countrys news impacts neighboring economies. Secondly, Forbes (2000b) predicted the impact of the Asian and Russian crises on stock returns for individual businesses around the world. She found that trade was the most vital transmission mechanism. Moreover, Eichengreen, Rose and Wyplosz (1996) and Kaminsky and Reinhart (1998) anticipated probit models to test how a crisis in one country (the exogenous event) affects the probability of the occurrence of a crisis in other countries. Eichengreen, Rose and Wyplosz studied the ERM countries in 1992-3 and found that the likelihood of a country suffering a speculative attack increases when another country in the ERM is under attack. They also argued that the first shock is propagated principally via trade. In the same context, Kaminsky and Reinhart (1998) estimated the conditional probability that a crisis will take place in a given country and found that this probability increases when more crises are occurring in other countries (particularly in the same region). 2.2.3 Summary of findings After the review of the numerous empirical findings on financial contagion, we found that financial disorder in one country can affect anothers country stock market through contagion effects. The same thing applied to the event of the financial crisis. It had spillover effects over stock markets globally through different contagion transmission mechanisms. Some mechanisms were due to the crisis and others were due to existing contagion irrespective of whether there is a crisis or not. To conclude, it is to be noted that a global event is a contributing factor to changes in stock market indices. 2.3 An empirical Framework applied for China Hong Kong In 2009, Tao Sun and Xiaojing studied the spillovers of the U.S. subprime financial turmoil to Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR: Evidence from Stock Markets by taking China and HKs stock price returns as from January 2007 to October 2008 as the sample period. They reflected in their model both the element of testing for contagion and the macroeconomic variables of the home countries. They had two groups of independent variables: Domestic control variables in China and Hong Kong, and Global financial market volatility variables The model specification takes the following form: Rt= constant + ÃÆ'Ã
½Ãâà ¶t Rt-1 + ÃÆ'Ã
½Ãâà »X t-1 + ÃÆ'à à ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã Vtf + ÃÆ'Ãâà °eventt + ÃÆ'à à ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã
¾t Where Rt = Price Return X t-1 = Control Variables Vtf = Measures of global financial market volatility eventt = Subprime events ÃÆ'à à ¢Ã¢â ¬Ã
¾t = Error Term The control variables (macroeconomic variables) that they used for China we re: interest rate, industrial production, money supply, CPI and trade balance. However, for Hong Kong, they used only money supply, CPI and trade balance. On the other hand, for the measures of global financial market volatility, they made use of Chicago Board Options Exchanges Volatility Index (VIX) to reflect the implied volatility of the SP 500 index. For the event variable, they used negative news on subprime crisis as a dummy variable i.e event=0 before the crisis and event=1 after the crisis. To conclude, they found that Chinas stock market was not immune to the financial crisis, as evidenced by the price and volatility spillovers from the U.S. in addition, Hong Kongs equity returns have exhibited more significant price and volatility spillovers from the US than Chinas returns, reflecting HKs role as an international financial center. 2.4 Loss in investor confidence: a major cause of the global financial crisis According to Brian Perry (2009), an investment strategist at an asset management firm called Alexander Perry Corporation, poor performances in the bond and stock markets were the most visible reflections of the credit crisis. In his article called Credit Crisis: Market Effects, he added thatÃâà more importantly, although less visible, was the impact on investor confidence. At its simplest level, the market depends on trust and confidence among investors. He said, Without this trust, a dollar bill is just another piece of paper, and a stock certificate holds no value. The most dangerous consequence of the credit crisis was the erosion of this trust and confidence which shook at the very foundation of the modern financial system when investors questioned theÃâà solvencyÃâà of banks and other financial institutions. This erosion of confidence ate away at the very base of the contemporary financial system and is the cause why the credit crisis posed such a serious danger. In this recent episode we have seen old-fashioned bank runs, with depositors lining up to get their deposits out of banks like Northern Rock in the U.K. and IndyMac in the United States. Diamond and Dyvbig (1983) in an influential model showed that a self-fulfilling loss of confidence in the banking system may lead depositors to seek to withdraw their funds from banks, causing widespread failure of the banking system. On the other hand, Chari and Jagannathan (1998) showed that asymmetric information about the quality of bank assets leads investors to withdraw their deposits. 2.3.1 Herd Behavior of investors According to Wikipedia, large stock market trends often begin and end with periods of frenzied buying (bubbles) or selling (crashes). Numerous observers quote these episodes as obvious instances of herding behavior that is irrational and driven by emotion for example greed in the bubbles and panic in the crashes. Individual investors join the mass of others in a hurry to get in or out of the market. A basic remark about the human society is that people who communicate frequently with one another think alike. Part of the rationale peoples judgments are alike at similar times is that they are reacting to identical information. The social pressure has an enormous power on individual judgment. When people are met with the judgment of a huge group of people, they have a tendency to alter their wrong answers. They merely think that all the other people could not be wrong. As per Shiller (2000), they are reacting to the information that a large group of people had reached a decision di ssimilar from theirs. This is a rational behavior. People are prejudiced by their social environment and they frequently feel pressure to conform. According to Fromlet (2001), fashion is a tiny form of herd behavior whereas an instance of the strong form is fads that comprise crashes. Herd behavior may be the most commonly recognized observation on financial markets in a psychological milieu. Many players on financial markets might believe that a currency or equity is not properly priced, but they refrain nonetheless from a contrary financial exposure. These people merely feel that it is not sensible to combat the herd. This is a case of enforced herd behavior. They follow the herd not willingly, but to avoid being trampled and are thus enforced into following the herd. A further important variable to herding is the word of mouth. People usually trust friends, relatives and working colleagues more than they do the media. The conventional media, written information, television s, and radio have an intense ability for spreading thoughts; however their capability to produce active behaviors is still limited. Discussing with other people and other types of interpersonal communication are in the midst of the most essential social connections humans have. It is thus probable that news regarding a buying opportunity will speedily spread. In a research done by Shiller and Pound (1986b), private investors were asked what first drew their interest to a company they recently had invested in. Simply six percent of the respondents specified newspapers and periodicals. The attention and actions of people appear to be more stimulated by interpersonal communications even if they read a lot. The conception that the level of market prices reflects the result of private investors aggregated assessments and accordingly the true value of the market may be erroneous. People can as an alternative be rationally choosing not to misuse their time and effort in exercising their judgment about the market and therefore choosing not to exert any independent impact on the market. Shiller (2000) pointed out that this can lead to herdlike behavior and act as a cause of stock market over- or under pricing. 2.3.2 Studies done to capture investors behavior Conversely, only few studies have been made so far to investigate how financial crises shape the beliefs and behavior of individuals. A noteworthy exception is Kim and Wei (2002) who investigated foreign portfolio investors before and during the Korean currency crisis in late 1997. The outcomes illustrated that foreign investors outside Korea were engaged more in herding than actually did the branches of foreign institutions in Korea or foreign individuals inhabiting Korea. This was interpreted as proof that local investors have dissimilar information compared to those outside the country. 2.3.2.1 Investor Confidence Index JPMorgan Asset Management India Pvt. Ltd. (JPMAMIPL) announced the launch of the first Investment Confidence Index (ICI) in India in July 2009. The primary purpose of the ICI is to quantify confidence in the investment environment among investors. With the aid of the survey intended to capture the ICI score, data was collected for eight cities across India. The survey was constructed in a way to include the following criteria which was opinion polled by individual investors inhabiting these cities. Investor Confidence Index Attributes (a) Elements Economic Environment Local Economic Environment, global economic environment Investment Atmosphere Fluctuations of stock market indices Investment Portfolios Prospect of individual investment portfolio, expected increase/decrease in the amount of investment Figure 1: Investment Confidence Index by JP Morgan The ICI was then computed as follows: Investment Confidence Score = a1 i . wi + a2 i . wi + a3 i . wi Where a1 i is the ith element of the 1st attribute, and wi is the corresponding weighting for that element Arun Jethmalani, Managing Director of ValueNotes said, The Indian economic prospects drive confidence across the board. A Government with a strong majority was viewed as the most positive economic signal. The Investment Confidence Index at the end of July 2009 stood at 135.9. A deeper study of the indices throws up a recurring theme across India consistently high levels of optimism on an improvement in the Indian economic situation. This is contrasted by a marked pessimism or significantly lower confidence on a global economic recovery.
Monday, May 25, 2020
Manual vs. Automated Statistical Process Control Food...
Israel Ortega-Ramos The Prime Example Our recent visit to a food packaging plant in New Jersey highlighted the inconsistent results of statistical process control routinely faced by Quality Control Managers. Product weight readings were taken from the manufacturing floor, entered into an Excel spreadsheet and analyzed. The results produced no predictable under or over filling trend despite the fact that the same people used the same scales at the same time of day. The problem is simple and fundamental. Human error is an inevitable part of the process of collecting statistical data. This is consistently overlooked in companies that utilize manual SPC[1] (statistical process control) for their manufactured goods. To ensure theâ⬠¦show more contentâ⬠¦The scale will then calculate the statistical data after the last product is placed on the scale and store this data in a password-protected memory for collection by the Quality Manager. This statistical data can then be sent wirelessly to a spreadsheet, printed on a label to accompany the sampled product, or simply viewed on the scale interface. The flow diagram below shows the improved SPC process. Companies can also utilize various connectivity and software options that can integrate filling machines to automated SPC scale systems. This means that fill volumes based on trends calculated by the scale can be adjusted via an automated system. Quality Control Managers and Plant Managers can also connect all the SPC scale systems in a factory via a central control computer that will provide easy access to ââ¬Å"real-timeâ⬠data. Integrating an automated SPC Scale System into a manufacturing environment will have the following advantages over the older manual SPC systems: Upgrading outdated manual SPC processes is the first step to improve overall quality, efficiency, and trace ability. This can be accomplished with as little as $5,000 in capital investment. Quality Control Managers and Plant managers have to take a hard look at how their product samples are being weighed and how these measurements are turned into results that can improve production line efficiency. 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